海上稠油油田蒸汽吞吐产量确定新方法

针对目前蒸汽吞吐产量预测模型假设条件简单、普适性差等问题,一般采用测试法和类比法综合确定海上稠油油田蒸汽吞吐初期产量。由于目前海上油田通常只开展常规测试,无法直接获得热采开发初期产量。笔者提出海上稠油油田蒸汽吞吐初期产量确定新方法,建立蒸汽吞吐相对于常规开发的初期产量倍数预测模型,通过蒸汽吞吐产量倍数,将常规测试确定的产量转化为蒸汽吞吐产量。研究表明,蒸汽吞吐初期产量倍数主要受储集层渗透率、原油黏度、注入强度、蒸汽干度等因素影响,利用正交试验设计和多元回归等方法,建立海上稠油油田蒸汽吞吐初期产量倍数与油藏地质参数及注入参数之间的非线性预测模型,该模型经实际生产数据验证,预测误差小于5%,可靠性高,能够为海上稠油油田蒸汽吞吐初期产量的确定提供依据。     

Multi-objective optimal allocation strategy for the energy internet in Huangpu District,Guangzhou, China

To improve the overall efficiency of the energy system, the basic structure for the energy internet of coordination and optimization of “generation-grid-load-storage” of Huangpu District, Guangzhou, China is designed, while the arrangement for the output of centralized and distributed energy module and energy storage are proposed. Taking economic benefit maximization, environmental benefit maximization and energy efficiency maximization as sub-objectives, the mathematical model of multi-objective optimal allocation and operation strategy of the energy internet is established considering supply-demand balance constraints, equipment characteristic constraints, operation mode constraints, and energy conditions constraints. The calculation results show that without considering the outsourced electricity, the balanced strategy, the economic development strategy, the environmental protection strategy, and the energy efficiency strategy are obtained by calculation, which are all superior to the traditional energy supply strategy. Moreover, considering the outsourced electricity, the proportion of outsourced electricity to total electricity is 19.8%, which is the system optimization of the energy internet under certain power demand. Compared with other strategies without outsourced electricity, the outsourced electricity strategy can have a certain emission reduction effect, but at the same time reduce the economic benefit. Furthermore, the huge difference in demand for thermal and cooling load between industrial and commercial areas results in the installed capacity of gas distributed energy stations in industrial areas being nearly twice as large as that in commercial areas. The distributed photovoltaic power generation is allocated according to the proportion of the installed roof areas of photovoltaic power generation system in residential, industrial, and commercial areas.     

Performance-based modelling of long-term deterioration to support rehabilitation and investment decisions in drinking water distribution systems

Managing the urban drinking water system in the long term in order to maintain system performance can be challenging due to the difficulty of modelling future deterioration of the networks. This paper establishes a methodology for cohort survival models where historical (empirical) data on decommissioning ages of pipes are used to calibrate survival functions of pipe cohorts according to service level targets. The benefit of the approach is that remaining useful life of pipes, future renewal rates and investment needs can be governed by a required level of service in the network. A case study shows how the methodology can be applied to a cohort of drinking water pipes to create a ‘calibration curve’, which is a survival function calibrated with empirical data.     

A comparative study for consistency-based decision making with interval multiplicative preference relations

ABSTRACT

To ensure the reasonable application and perfect the theory of decision making with interval multiplicative preference relations (IMPRs), this paper continues to discuss decision making with IMPRs. After reviewing previous consistency concepts for IMPRs, we find that Krej?í’s consistency concept is more flexible and natural than others. However, it is insufficient to address IMPRs only using this concept. Considering this fact, this paper researches inconsistent and incomplete IMPRs that are usually encountered. First, programming models for addressing inconsistent and incomplete IMPRs are constructed. Then, this paper studies the consensus of individual IMPRs and defines a consensus index using the defined correlation coefficient. When the consensus requirement does not satisfy requirement, a programming model for improving consensus level is built, which can ensure the consistency. Subsequently, a procedure for group decision making with IMPRs is offered, and associated examples are provided to specifically show the application of main theoretical results.     

大涡模拟Smagorinsky模型用于磨粒流精密加工喷嘴的质量控制研究

为研究固液两相磨粒流加工喷嘴小孔过程中的流场分布、涡旋形成规律及涡旋的存在对磨粒流加工的影响机制，采用Smagorinsky亚格子模型对磨粒流加工喷嘴小孔的流道进行大涡数值模拟，并使用磨粒流对变直径喷嘴工件进行加工试验。数值模拟发现磨粒流流体中磨粒与壁面的碰撞与剪切作用随流体的速度增大而增大，同一截面的速度存在速度差，其中还伴随涡旋的存在；通过试验研究发现：经固液两相磨粒流加工后的喷嘴小孔表面质量得到明显提高，喷嘴经过四次不同入口速度的磨粒流加工后大孔处表面粗糙度Ra由1.24 μm降至0.542 μm，小孔处表面粗糙度Ra由1.21 μm降至0.437 μm。结论显示固液两相磨粒流加工技术可有效提高被加工喷嘴工件的内表面质量，加工时同一截面的速度存在速度差，速度差的存在利于涡旋的形成，涡旋的存在利于提高磨粒流加工过程的剪切作用，有助于获得高质量的喷嘴小孔内通道表面。     

全局力平衡PDC钻头布齿优化设计

针对聚晶金刚石复合片(PDC)钻头在钻井破岩过程中因受力不平衡，导致钻井倾斜、井径扩大、钻头产生横向振动和涡动，造成钻头早期失效的问题，基于已有PDC钻头切削力学知识，构建了PDC钻头弯曲力矩及全局力平衡布齿优化设计模型，并提出模型求解方法。布齿设计实例结果表明，采用全局力平衡布齿设计方法得到的布齿结构可使PDC钻头在不同进尺条件下均能保持全局力平衡状态，尤其低进尺（小于1 mm）时的力平衡状态得到极大改善，提高了PDC钻头的钻井稳定性，对于改善钻头受力、提升钻头使用寿命、提高钻井质量与效率具有重要意义。     

异质性环境规制对绿色全要素生产率的影响机制——基于能源消费结构的调节作用

为探讨能源消费结构调节下异质性环境规制对绿色全要素生产率的影响机制，论文利用SBM方向距离函数测得全国各省市“经济-资源-环境-社会”四位一体的绿色全要素生产率，并将环境规制工具分为命令控制型、经济激励型、治理投入型和公众参与型4类，构建了空间杜宾模型以及门槛效应模型，进而得出在能源消费结构调节下，异质性环境规制对绿色全要素生产率的直接作用、间接作用以及空间溢出效应。研究结果表明：1）经济激励型和公众参与型环境规制通过调节能源消费结构对当地和邻地的绿色全要素生产率产生影响；2）在门槛检验方面，能源消费结构对命令控制型、经济激励型和公众参与型环境规制影响绿色全要素生产率存在门槛效应，同时在能源消费结构调节下，命令控制型和经济激励型环境规制对其本身对绿色全要素生产率的间接作用存在门槛效应。建议政府在制定环境规制时要考虑到其与能源消费结构的交互作用，并且在不同能源消费水平地区采用适宜的规制方法和强度，以更好地发挥环境规制作用。     

高强不锈钢绞线网与ECC黏结-滑移关系模型

高强不锈钢绞线网与ECC的黏结是二者协同工作的基础，且黏结 滑移关系模型是其黏结性能的综合反映，故通过对17组51个高强不锈钢绞网增强ECC薄板试件进行单边拉拔试验，研究横向钢绞线间距、纵向钢绞线直径和相对锚固长度等因素对钢绞线网在ECC中黏结性能的影响规律。试验结果表明，横向钢绞线的设置可使黏结破坏由脆性破坏转变为延性破坏；高强不锈钢绞线网与ECC的黏结滑移曲线可分为5个阶段，分别为上升段、微降段、延性强化段、下降段和残余段。基于试验结果，对钢绞线网在ECC中的黏结破坏特征和黏结 滑移机理进行分析，在相关黏结-滑移关系模型的基础上，提出钢绞线网与ECC的黏结 滑移关系模型，并进行模型参数分析。所提模型及模型参数计算公式与试验结果吻合良好，能较好地反映钢绞线网与ECC的界面黏结滑移特征。     

引江济巢工程对改善巢湖水质的数值模拟分析

巢湖受周围城市工业化及农业生产迅速发展的影响,湖区及流域的生态环境发生了巨大变化,尤其是近几年巢湖水质达到重富营养化水平。引江济巢工程是改善巢湖水质的重要工程措施,采用EFDC生态动力学模型模拟了巢湖不同调水流量、调水线路、调水时间对水环境的影响。结果表明,引江济巢工程在一定程度、时间上使巢湖湖区水质发生一定程度的改善,但若入湖水质不达标,调水也增加了巢湖的富营养化风险。     

大坝服役非概率可靠性分析方法

针对大坝服役可靠性影响因子具有非概率不确定特征的情况,建立了定量刻画大坝服役可靠性非概率影响因子的Info-gap模型,运用Info-gap决策理论和体积比非概率可靠性度量方法,提出了大坝服役非概率可靠性分析方法,拟定了大坝服役非概率目标可靠度。应用提出的非概率方法分析了某大坝结构服役可靠性,各功能模式可靠性分析结果说明了该方法的工程适用性,同时也验证了所拟定大坝服役非概率目标可靠度的合理性。